ECMWF 数值预报模式简介最终版.pptVIP

Ocean model (NEMO) Ice concentration Wave model (ECWAM) Atmosphericmodel (IFS) Air density Gustiness Neutral wind Roughness Turbulent energy Stokes drift Currents Ice model (LIM) Sea surface temperature Ice concentration All configurations Stress Ensemble FC future operational Solar and non solar fluxes, E-P Towards a coupled system ORCA0.25°_Z75 Adding active sea ice model Implementation: End 2016. Single executable .......... * * Simplified flow chart of the coupled model, here two time steps are shown. In reality, IFS/WAM coupling every IFS time step, but Call to NEMO every hour (or 3 hours) with averaged accumulated fluxes. .......... Impact of Resolution on tropical cyclone forecast For instance Typhoon Haiyan: forecasts from 4th, 5th and 6th November 2013, 0 UTC all from operational analysis. Black: estimated from observations Red: old operational Ensemble resolution (32 km) Blue: old operational HRES configuration (16 km) Green: experimental: new HRES configuration (10km) min MSLP (hPa) 900 950 Typhoon Haiyan at peak intensity on November 7, 2013 .......... * Impact of Coupling on tropical cyclone forecast For instance Typhoon Neoguri: forecasts from 6 July 2014, 0 UTC Black: estimated from observations Green: old operational HRES configuration (uncoupled) (16km) Red: experimental: 16km coupled to NEMO (ORCA025_Z75) Blue: 16km coupled to NEMO + new physics min MSLP (hPa) 900 950 Neoguri affecting Okinawa on July 8, 2014 .......... * ECMWF coupled Earth model for medium-range weather forecasting New coupled assimilation system (CERA) for the coupled Earth model: atmospheric and ocean observations assimilated simultaneously ocean observations can impact atmospheric estimate and conversely CERA-20C reanalysis in production (1900-2010) Karl and Trenberth 2003 land waves sea ice atmosphere oceans ECMWF coupled Earth model .......... * EDA variational approach with a 24-hour windo