ITSCongressfinalpaperhyodoyoshii150726智能交通世界大会ITS智慧城市社区人工智能AI物联网IT报告课件教案.pdfVIP

22nd ITS World Congress, Bordeaux, France, 5–9 October 2015 Paper number ITS-2863 Analysis of the impact of the traffic states on traffic accident risk 1* 2 * Satoshi HYODO , Toshio YOSHII * 1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ehime University, Japan Tel:+81-89-927-9825 Fax:+81-89-927-9843 Email: hyodo.satoshi.07@cee.ehime-u.ac.jp * 2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ehime University, Japan Tel:+81-89-927-9825 Fax:+81-89-927-9843 Email: yoshii@cee.ehime-u.ac.jp Abstract Information provision of traffic accident risk, which denotes the likelihood of causing a traffic accident on a route at a specific time, has a possibility to improve traffic safety. In order to develop a traffic accident risk estimation model, this study analyses the impact of the traffic states on traffic accident risks. In this study, in addition to Free Flow/Congested Flow state, Mixed Flow state is considered as the third phase of the traffic state. Then, impacts of these 3 phases on traffic accident risk are investigated based on Poisson regression analyses using the data obtained from Hanshin Expressway road network. As a result, it is shown that the traffic accident risks of the rear-ender collisions and minor collisions are significantly higher at the Congested Flow and the Mixed Flow. On the other hand, that of own-crash accident is significantly higher at the Free Flow. KEYWORDS: traffic state, Mixed Flow, traffic accident risk, urban expressway Introduction In Japan, 629,021 traffic accidents occurred and 4,278 people died in 2013, although