综合商务英语 Unit5 课文.pdf

The Coming Trade Wars1 The massive intrusion of government into national economics could spark disastrous protectionism. Jeffrey E. Garten Its hard to find a top economic official, economist or global business leader who doesnt recognize todays heightened dangers of protectionism. But it is equally difficult to identify any high-powered efforts to actively ward off the prospect of higher tariffs, quotas or trade-blocking regulations. It is as if talking about the threat is seen as enough to deter a gigantic rollback of global commerce. But rhetoric will not prevent a trade war, which is now, I believe, more likely than it has been at any time since the early 1970s, when currencies were no longer fixed to the value of gold and began to float against one another. A half-century of steady trade liberalization was in jeopardy even before the current financial and economic meltdown. Prior to the implosion of Bear Stearns①, the U.S. Congress had taken away almost all of President Bushs trade-negotiating authority, feeling that the U.S. was no longer gaining enough from new trade agreements, while jobs were being lost and wages undercut. Well before subprime② entered the popular lexicon, the Doha round of trade negotiations had collapsed, as rich and poor nations fought over contentious issues like agriculture. The rise of China and India has raised deep concerns over import penetration, not just in the U.S. and Europe but also in emerging markets like Mexico. For a few years now, prominent economists were raising warning flags that support for free trade was being eroded by the perception that trade was contributing to ever-greater income inequalities. Now, however, the collapse of the global banking system, a deepening global recession and the massive intrusion