基于粗糙集理论的危险货物运输风险分析.docx

基于粗糙集理论的危险货物运输风险分析 高清平讲师 (浙江师范大学 工学院，浙江 金华321004) 学科分类与代码：6203070(安全系统工程) 中图分类号：X937 文献标志码：A 基金项目：浙江师范大学博士科研启动基金资助 (ZC304010091 ); 浙江师范大学 2011年度青年科学基金资助 (K YJ06Y11013)。 【摘要】为解决不确定环境中危险货物运输风险分析问题 ，针对风险数值分析等方法无法识别 构成风险的主要因素和次要因素 ，无法获得因素重要度 ，以及不能揭示风险因素与风险之间的因果 关系等问题，提出基于粗糙集理论的危险货物运输风险分析方法 。首先将原始样本进行属性约简和 规则约简，获得各个属性的重要度，识别影响危险货物运输安全的主要因素和次要因素 ；然后，通过 对原始样本进行实例推理 ，推导出危险货物运输事故规律 ；最后通过算例验证模型和算法的有效性 结果表明，道路的平纵曲线半径是影响危险货物运输安全的最重要因素 ，其次是驾驶员因素和运输 车辆因素。 【关键词】风险分析；粗糙集理论；属性约简；实例推理；因素重要度；因果分析 Risk Analysis for Hazardous Materials Transportation Based on Rough Set Theory GAO Qi ng-pi ng (Coll ege of Engin eeri ng，Zheji a ng N ormal Un iversity，Jin hua Zheji a ng 321004，China) Abstract: In order to perform risk a.nalysis for hazardous materi al stransportation in an uncertain environ- ment，and in view of the fact that the risk numerical analysis method can not distinguish major and minor in flue nce factors and can not obtai n factors7 weights as well as can not reveal the cause-result ” relati ons of risk events, a new risk analysis method for hazardous materials transportation was presented based on rough set theory. Firstly，attribute reduction and rule reduction were performed on the primary samples. Secondly ，case-based reason ing was performed to find objective laws of tra nsportat ion accide nts. Fin ally，the application of the model and its algorithm were ill ustrated with numerical examples. The results show that the most important factors that impact the transportati on safety are the vertical curve radius and horizontal curve radius，and the driver and vehicle factors take the second pl ace. Key w ords: risk analysis; rough set theory; attribute reduction; case-based reasoning; factors7 weights; cause and con seque nce an alysis 文章编号：1003 —3033( 2011) 11 -0103 —06; 收稿日期：2011 -08 -15; 修稿日期：2011 -09 -23 法将原始样本进行属性约简和规则约简，获得各个属性的重要度和影响权重，识别影响危险货物运输风险的主要因素和次要因素;通过对原始样本进行规则推理 法将原始样本进 行属性约简和规则约 简，获得各 个属性的重要度 和影响权重，识别影响危险货物 运输风险的主要 因素和次要因素 ;通过对原始样 本进行规则推理 ，建立危险货物运输的安全状态 0引言 危险货