第四章-财务报表分析.ppt

Altman Z-score(2-2) Z—Score模型判別函數為： Z = 1.2X1 + 1.4X2 + 3.3X3 + 0.6X4 + 0.999X5 Z 1.81 非常高 1.81Z2.99 無法決定 Z 2.99 不可能 X1=營運資金／資產總額 X2=保留盈餘／資產總額 X3=息前稅前淨利／資產總額。即EBIT／資產總額 X4=股東權益的市場價值總額／負債總額 X5=銷售收入／資產總額，即總資產周轉率 * Altman Z-score 範例－華碩 * 2357 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 流動資產 30,849,455 40,470,420 49,146,937 64,603,000 73,398,920 92,754,552 122,978,311 189,507,125 295,847,530 301,734,225 270,276,158 流動負債 4,583,356 6,301,475 9,170,188 13,374,565 27,542,095 47,722,292 63,478,439 111,163,620 206,141,822 185,994,288 160,784,258 CA-CL34168945512284354503226078343505115739937 109491900 總資產 35,749,032 48,645,503 63,536,066 79,317,216 94,104,077 122,555,383 157,363,599 239,553,176 363,742,885 385,742,042 360,939,185 總負債 4,660,617 6,422,047 9,374,910 13,726,439 27,655,141 48,028,251 74,107,271 125,004,853 220,584,373 206,061,013 172,756,770 未分配盈餘 14,873,495 21,249,833 27,293,075 32,713,252 31,819,091 36,615,257 43,740,918 48,210,915 60,163,931 77,526,880 75,738,691 股本 8,135,000 11,464,000 15,671,040 19,768,800 19,988,800 22,817,400 25,529,140 29,970,082 34,070,702 37,283,589 42,460,513 股數=股本/10 813500 1146400 1567104 1976880 1998880 2281740 2552914 2997008.2 3407070.2 3728358.9 4246051.3 股價(年調整) 51.9 80.97 32.67 65.91 27.53 39.02 50.03 67.93 67.92 80.51 35.34 權益市值(股價-年調整)9282400868 130296160.848 127722287.4 203586767 231408208 300170175 150055452.9 營業淨利 9,952,632 12,618,675 13,700,967 14,672,502 9,189,423 10,883,620 14,691,748 18,389,948 20,352,746 28,670,942 18,380,671 稅前息前淨利(稅前淨利+I) 11,462,799 14,695,483 16,136,052 16,540,412 10,539,731 12,508,268 16,411,623 20,057,960 28,741,050 39,080,865 25,321,442 營收淨額 35,200,098 48,998,672 70,731,487 85,648,730 114,177,743 199,143,849 250,041,947 385,058,078 560,234,582 755,360,724 667,619,683 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 T1=(CA-CL)/總資產 0.735 0.702