普格尔_国际经济学课件chapter21 international lending and financial crises.pptx

Chapter 21: International Lending and Financial CrisesoutlineGains and losses from well-behaved international lendingTaxes on international lendingInternational lending to developing countriesGlobal governance short of reserves?Financial crises:what can and does go wrong extensionGlobal crisisResolving finacial crisesReducing the frequency of financial crisesGlobal governance mighty joe meets the incredible monetary forceInternational LendingRelevance1. International capital movements can benefit both the lending and the borrowing countries in two major ways: Inter-temporal trade: The lender gives up resources today for more in the future The borrower gets resources today but must be willing to pay back more in the futureThe portfolio diversification (投资组合多样化)for the lenders/investors: Lowers the risk of investments2. International lending has been revolutionized（彻底改革）: Will be interesting to see the changesBefore WWII to early 1980s: the US and major oil exporters are lenders c.f. early 1980s both became net borrowers, Japan became the major lenderMajor types of lending shifted to private loans（私人贷款） and portfolio investments（证券投资） c.f. government loans and direct investmentsLearning objectivesTypes of international lendingWelfare analysis of the well-behaved有效率的 international lendingWelfare analysis of taxes on international lending（国际借贷税）Types of international lending1) Private lending/investingLong term: a. Direct investment b. Loans (a year or more, by foreign banks银行向外国人提供), c. Portfolio (stocks and bonds) 证券投资Short term: lending and bonds (a year or less)2) Official lending/investing: Governments or multilateral institutions多边机构 like IMF, World Bank, both long and short terms2. Welfare （economic）analysis of the well-behaved international lending1) What is well-behaved international lending? World economy is stable and predictableBorrowers can fully honor their commitments to repay完全履行偿债义务 Otherwise? （ country risk, business risk） 2) . Gains and lo