技术进步、人工智能和包容性增长.docxVIP

Contents Abstract 2 Introduction 4 Downside Risks of Technological Progress 6 Labor-Saving Technological Progress 9 Resource-Saving Technological Progress 12 Information, Digital Monopolies and Superstars 13 Misguided Technological Progress 14 Broader Harms Associated with AI 16 Evaluating the Uncertainties and Opportunities 17 Uncertainty about the Pace and Scale of Progress 17 The Productivity Puzzle: Are We Really in an Era of Unprecedented Innovation? 18 Putting AI in the Broader Context of Development 19 Lessons from Past Technological Transformations 21 Pre-Industrial Revolution 22 Industrial Revolution 22 Manufacturing-Based Export-Led Growth 24 What is Different This Time 26 Domestic Policy Responses 27 Taxation, Redistribution, and Government Expenditures 27 Pre-Distribution 31 Global Governance 35 A Global Tax Regime for the Digital Age 36 Global Competition Policy 36 Intellectual Property Rights 37 Data and Information Policy 38 Conclusion 39 References 41 Figures Figure 1. Productivity and Earnings Growth 7 Figure 2. Income Inequality over Time, 1960-2015 8 Figure 3. Rising Wage-Skill Premia in the US 10 Figure 4. Employment Trends in Routine vs. Non-Routine Jobs 10 Figure 5. Population Aging and Automation 20 Figure 6. Federal Minimum Wage in the US, 1938-2020 23 Figure 7. Technology Adoption Lags 26 INTRODUCTION Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and related forms of automation technologies have led to growing fears about job losses and increasing inequality. This concern is widespread in high-income countries. Developing countries and emerging market economies should be even more concerned than high-income countries, as their comparative advantage in the world economy relies on abundant labor and natural resources. Declining returns to labor and natural resources as well as the winner-takes-all dynamics brought on by new information technologies could lead t