米什金货币金融学(商学院版)第7章课件教学提纲.pptVIP

* Copyright ? 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 7-* Copyright ? 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Chapter 7 The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Market Hypothesis 第一页，共20页。 7.1 Computing the Price of Common Stock Basic Principle of Finance Value of Investment = Present Value of Future Cash Flows 第二页，共20页。 7.1.1 One-Period Valuation Model 第三页，共20页。 7.1.2 Generalized Dividend Valuation Model 第四页，共20页。 7.1.3 Gordon Growth Model 第五页，共20页。 7.2 How the Market Sets Prices Players in the market, bidding against one another, establish the market price. The price is set by the buyer willing to pay the highest price The market price will be set by the buyer who can take best advantage of the asset Superior information about an asset can increase its value by reducing its perceived risk 第六页，共20页。 How the Market Sets Prices Information is important for individuals to value each asset. When new information is released about a firm, expectations and prices change. Market participants constantly receive information and revise their expectations, so stock prices change frequently. 第七页，共20页。 7.3 Theory of Rational Expectations Adaptive Expectations Expectations are formed from past experience only. Changes in expectations will occur slowly over time as data changes. However, people use more than just past data to form their expectations and sometimes change their expectations quickly. 第八页，共20页。 Rational Expectations Rational expectation = expectation that is optimal forecast (best prediction of future) using all available information: Rational expectation, although optimal prediction, may not be accurate. It takes too much effort to make the expectation the best guess possible Best guess will not be accurate because predictor is unaware of some relevant information 第九页，共20页。 Formal Statement of the Theory 第十页，共20页。 Implications 1. If there is a change in the way a variable moves, the way in which expectations