央行货币政策框架转型研究.docVIP

PAGE PAGE 16 央行货币政策框架转型研究：目标、路线和前景 摘要:货币政策框架主要由货币政策目标、政策工具、中介目标、传导机制、货币政策规则以及货币政策效果组成。其中中间目标是介于操作目标与最终变量之间的中间指标，以便更直观的看到短期内货币政策效果，对于及时检验货币政策框架是否合理有效十分重要。然而任何时期货币政策理论都离不开特定的经济条件限制，需要结合特定历史条件制定合适的货币政策框架。本文通过回顾我国自建国以来的货币政策的实践过程，分当前中国经济结构特点的变化对当前货币政策框架的影响。从货币政策工具、货币政策中介目标的选择、货币政策传导机制以及货币政策效果的预期来探讨构建中国货币政策框架转型的趋势和方向。 关键词：货币政策框架：中介目标选择：货币政策工具：传导机制：最终目标 The Central Bank’s monetary policy framework transformation research: the target, route and prospects Abstract:The monetary policy framework is mainly composed of monetary policy goal, policy tool, midway target, transmission mechanism, monetary policy rules as well as the effect of monetary policy. The intermediate target is between operation goal and the final variable in the middle of the index, in order to more intuitive see effect of monetary policy in the short term, to test whether the monetary policy framework in time it is very important to reasonable and effective. However, any theory of monetary policy during the period of cannot leave the specific economic conditions, requires a combination of specific historical conditions, formulate appropriate monetary policy framework. In this paper, by reviewing the practice of our country since the founding of the monetary policy, the points of the current Chinas economic structure change on the impact of the current monetary policy framework. From monetary policy tools, the choice of monetary policy?intermediary target, monetary policy transmission mechanism and?the effect of monetary policy is expected to explore the trend of transformation of Chinas monetary policy framework and direction. Keywords: Monetary policy framework; intermediary target selection;monetary policy tools; transmission mechanism; the ultimate goal 一、引言 货币政策框架主要由货币政策目标、政策工具、中介目标、传导机制、货币政策规则以及货币政策效果组成。其中中间目标是介于操作目标与最终变量之间的中间指标，相当于传导机制，可以更直观的看到短期内货币政策效果，对于及时检验货币政策框架是否合理有效十分重要。 二、文献综述 以货币政策中间目标的不同将货币政策框架可以分为两大类：一是以货币供应量为中间目标的数量型中间目标理论，二是以利率为中间变量的价格型中间目标理论。 （一）数量型中间目标理论——货币供应量 以货币数量论为基础的货币供应量型货币中介目标