钱学峰国际贸易学课件2.pptVIP

Copyright by 钱学锋 从较长的历史时期来观察，中国的出口市场多元化战略并未从根本上改变中国出口市场高度集中的格局； 从企业在出口市场上的微观行为来看，必须注意到企业在出口市场上频繁进入和退出的动态特征； 从国际经验来看，出口市场多元化也似乎不是企业和国家的最优战略。 出口市场多元化是一项好的战略吗 出口市场多元化：特征性事实 中国制造业企业的出口市场分布 出口市场多元化：特征性事实 　　国有企业 出口市场数量 出口企业数量 出口企业占比 1 629 14.72 1-5 2074 48.55 6-10 837 19.59 10 1361 31.86 　　外资企业 1 4809 20.14 1-5 13487 56.48 6-10 4130 17.3 10 6259 26.21 　　私营企业 1 1612 16.04 1-5 5056 50.3 6-10 1964 19.54 10 3605 30.15 市场多元化与企业生产率 里昂惕夫之谜（Leontief paradox） 美国是世界上资本最丰裕的国家，根据H-O模型，应该出口资本密集型商品（capital-intensive commodity），进口劳动密集型商品（labor-intensive commodity），但里昂惕夫用1947年的数据检验发现，美国进口的是资本密集型产品，出口的却是劳动密集型产品。难道H-O模型是错误的？这就是里昂惕夫之谜。 Leontief’s First Test One million dollars worth of typical exportable and importable in 1947 (K/L)x = Kx / Lx = $14,300 (K/L)m = Km / Lm = $18,200 The US is believed to be endowed with more capital per worker than any other country in the world in 1947. Thus, the H-O theory predicts that the US exports would have required more capital per worker than US imports. However, Leontief was surprised to discover that US imports were 30% more capital-intensive than US exports, (K/L)m = 1.30 (K/L)x . (See: W. Leontief, Domestic Production and Foreign Trade: The American Capital Position Re-examined, Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society 97, September 1953.) Capital Requirement Labor Requirement Exports Kx = 2550780 Lx=182.313 man-years Imports Km = 3091339 Lm=170.114 man-years Leontief’s Second Test One million dollars worth of typical exportable and importable in 1951 Capital Requirement Labor Requirement Exports Kx = 2256800 Lx=174 man-years Imports Km = 2303400 Lm=168 man-years (K/L)x = Kx / Lx = $12,970 (K/L)m = Km / Lm = $13,711 (K/L)m = 1.057 (K/L)x In 1956 Leontief repeated the test for US imports and exports which prevailed in 1951. In his second study, Leontief aggregated industries into 192 industries. He found that US imports were still more capital-intensive than US exports. US imports were 5.7% more capital-intensive. The degree h