管理经济学生意和经济的预测.pptVIP

Forecasted Sales @ Time = 7 Linear Model Sales = 85.0 + 12.7 Time Sales = 85.0 + 12.7 ( 7) Sales = 173.9 Semi-Log Model Ln-sales = 4.50 + 0.0982 Time Ln-sales = 4.50 + 0.0982 ( 7 ) Ln-sales = 5.1874 To anti-log: e5.1874 = 179.0 ?? linear ? 第六十二页，共六十九页。 Sales Time Ln-sales 100.0 1 4.60517 109.8 2 4.69866 121.6 3 4.80074 133.7 4 4.89560 146.2 5 4.98498 164.3 6 5.10169 179.0 7 semi-log 173.9 7 linear Which prediction do you prefer? Semi-log is exponential 7 第六十三页，共六十九页。 6. Procedures for Seasonal Adjustments Take ratios of A/F for past ye