危 机中的坠落风险：预计2020年债务将达到2150亿美元.docxVIP

Fallen angel risk in this crisis We estimate a record $215bn of debt will fall to HY in 2020With over $600bn of BBB- rated debt and now a US recession scenario we update our fallen angel estimates and discuss the credits that we are watching. The central case is $215bn of fallen angels in 2020. YTD we stand at $32bn. Sectors potentially impacted the most are Energy, Autos and Transportation. If this estimate proves correct it would be a record single year for fallen angels, surpassing the $ 1 OObn that fell from HG to HY in 2005. However, the HG bond market is roughly 4.5x times larger than in