全球-零售业-全球体育用品入门：论零售业的进攻——全球策略.docxVIP

J.RMorgan CazenoveGlobal Equity Research 14 September 2020 European General Retail European General Retail Chiara Battistini AC (44-20) 7134-5417 J.P. Morgan Securities plc Georgina Johanan, ACA (44-20) 7134-5791 J.P. Morgan Securities plc Philip Spain (44-20) 7742-6370 J.P. Morgan Securities plc Ipsita Singh (91-22) 6157-3339 J.P. Morgan India Private Limited Luxury General Retail Team Head Melanie Flouquet, ACA (39-02) 8895-2133 J.P. Morgan Securities plc North America Retailing - Department Stores Specialty Softlines Matthew R. Boss, CPA AC (1-212) 622-2630 J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Grace Smalley, CFA (1-212) 622-4894 J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Sector Specialist (Sales Trading) contact details: Global Sporting Goods PrimerOn the Retail Offense: Global Ways To Play In the last few years, all major global sporting goods companies have upped their game to grow owned retail, making it a strategic growth cornerstone. Near-term, COVID-19 has further accelerated this shift, particularly e- commerce growth and penetration, which so far does not seem to be significantly moderating. Qualitatively, the acceleration of global brands DTC is instrumental for customer engagement/acquisition, storytelling, and brand control while quantitatively positive for top and bottom-line financial algorithms, which we outline herein. All-in, we maintain our positive stance on the Global Sporting Goods sector with Overweight-rated Nike (raising price target to $136), Puma, Lululemon, and VFC our top ways to play. Direct, direct, direct. From historically being an industry heavily skewed to wholesale distribution, DTC expansion has become in the last 3-5 years one of the cornerstones of the sports brands multi-year strategies. Specifically, owned retail (stores + e-commerce) has increased on average from 25% of sales in FY15 to 33% in FY19 with our models pointing to c. 45% penetration over the next three years. E-commerce in particular has been growing significantly, on average posting