全球房地产行业策略：全球仓库使用者调查.docxVIP

Global Real Estate StrategyUBS Evidence Lab inside: global warehouse occupier survey - accelerating structural themes Global occupier survey shows increased demand for spaceLogistics REITs are a consensus overweight globally. Are structural tai I winds strong enough to drive through economic uncertainty? We introduce the global warehouse occupier survey carried out by UBS Evidence Lab to shed some light. The survey indicates: (1) future space requirements of major users is outstripping supply by large listed developers; (2) the acceleration in automation spend is likely to provide improved tenure as occupiers become wedded to their location. On balance, the crowded trade of logistics real estate in a listed context is supported by this survey. What are warehouse space requirements for the next 1-2 years? The survey suggested warehouse space would grow ?7% (?6% in 2018) in the next 1- 2 years, with e-commerce users expecting to increase space by ?13% (9% in 2018). Increased growth in space requirements is evident in APAC (?6%) and the US (?10%), with slowing growth expected in Europe (albeit still robust at 4%;?6% in 2018). To put this in perspective, the current development pipelines of PLD, GMG and Segro represent 6%, 11% and 12% of AUM. Interestingly, c.50% of the increased space requirements are to be met through expansions and c.25% through (new) build to suit. Increased investment in automation - where will we be in 3-5 years? Automation spend ir warehouses is accelerating. This is beneficial to owners/developers as warehouses become critical pieces of infrastructure, and occupiers become wedded to the property. Some 72% of respondents (64% in previous survey) see rising or strongly rising warehouse automation capex. Currently 41% of warehouse infrastructure is considered robotized / automated. Over the next 3-5 years this is expected to grow to 55% (52% previously). The biggest challenge for warehouse infrastructure plans in the next 3-5 years is uncertainty o