exchangeratepart1(国际金融(香港大学,WONGKaF.ppt

* * Forecasting exchange rate: part 1 WONG Ka Fu 10th January 2001 If you are looking for a white or black, or black white cat, I am your perfect choice. Content A taste of technical analysis A taste of time-series forecasting Fundamental analysis: Factors that affect the movement of exchange rates A taste of technical analysis Technical analysis Technical analysis is a method to forecast price movements of individual commodities and/or entire markets by looking at purely market-generated statistics-abstract summaries of price activity. Three tenets of technical analysts All market fundamentals are depicted in the actual market data. History repeats itself. Prices move in trends. 1. All market fundamentals are depicted in the actual market data. Thus actual market fundamentals and various unquantifiable meta factors, such as the differing opinions, hopes, fears, and moods of market participants, need not be studied. 2. History repeats itself. History repeats itself, such that markets move in fairly predictable, or at least quantifiable, patterns. These patterns, generated by price movement, are called signals. The goal in technical analysis is to uncover the current markets signals by examining past market signals. 3. Prices move in trends Technicians typically do not believe that price fluctuations are random and unpredictable. (Most reject the weak-form explanation of market efficiency and dismiss the random walk theory.) Prices can move in one of three directions, up, down or sideways. Once a trend in any of these directions is in effect it usually will persist. A price chart will usually indicate the prevailing trend as characterized by a series of waves with obvious peaks and troughs. It is the direction of these peaks and troughs that constitutes the market trend. Technical analysis attempts to determine the strength and direction of the trend and the change in the trend direction. The building blocks of any technical analysis system include Price chart