环境与自然资源经济学PPT1 Tietenberg_8e_ppt01_final.pptVIP

Chapter 1 Visions ofthe Future Introduction The Self-Extinction Premise Some Historic Examples Mayan civilization Easter Island Mayan Civilization Population growth bumped into environmental constraints in the 5th century. In the early 6th century, the carrying capacity of the most productive local lands was exceeded. Mid 8th century, population reached its historic apex: Widespread deforestation, erosion High infant and adolescent mortality and malnutrition A.D. 820-822, the Roy dynasty collapsed abruptly. Future Environmental Challenges Climate Change affecting human health, ecosystem, moral dimension and requiring international coordination Water Accessibility Increasing water stress from both supply and sanitation Meeting the Challenges Economic activities and environmental problems International cooperation How Will Societies Respond? Positive feedback loops self-reinforcing, for example, methane and global warming Negative feedback loops self-limiting, for example, increase of output aggravates pollution level which causes the rise of death rates and limits population growth) The Role of Economics The Use of Models Models are simplified characterization of reality. Models should be used with some caution. system dynamics — a large-scale computer model, is used to simulate future outcomes. The Road Ahead The Issues Is the problem correctly conceptualized as exponential growth with fixed, immutable resource limits? Does the earth have a finite carrying capacity? Do current levels of economic activity exceed the carrying capacity? How does the economic system respond to scarcities? Is the process mainly characterized by positive or negative feedback loops? The Road Ahead The Issues (contd.) What is the role of the political system in controlling these problems? In what circumstances is government intervention necessary? Can our economic and political institutions respond to the uncertainty in reasonable ways or does uncertainty become a paralyzing fo