财务管理分析【外文翻译】.pdf

外文翻译 原文 Material source：《Analysis For Financial Management》 Author：Robert C. Higgins Most thoughtful individuals and some investment bankers know that all interesting financial decisions involve risk as well as return. By their nature, business investments require the expenditure of a known sum of money today in anticipation of uncertain future benefits. Consequently, if the discounted cash flow techniques discussed in the last chapter are to be useful in evaluating realistic investments, they must incorporate considerations of risk as well as return. Tow such considerations are relevant. At an applied level, risk increases the difficulty of estimating relevant cash flows. More importantly at a conceptual level, risk itself enters as a fundamental determinant of investment value. Thus, if two investments promise the same expected return but have differing risk, most of us will prefer the low-risk alternative. In the jargon of economics, we are risk averse, and as a result, risk reduces investment value. The details of the market line need not detain us here. What is important is realization that knowledge of an investment’s expected return is not enough to determine its worth. Instead, investment evaluation is a two-dimensional task involving a balancing of risk against return. 1.Risk Defined Speaking broadly, there are two aspects to investment risk: The dispersion of an investment’s possible returns, and the correlation of these returns with those available on other assets. An investment’s expected return is the probability-weighted average of the deviations of three returns are possible—8、 12and 18 percent—and if the chance of each occurring is 40 、30and 30 percent, respectively, the investment’s expected ret