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InternationalAuto
FinancePrimerJuly2011782054CONFIDENTIALANDPROPRIETARYAnyuseofthismaterialwithoutspecificpermissionofMcKinseyCompanyisstrictlyprohibitedJenDeLoydMhoireMurphyChristopherPaquetteRaghavSharmaVikSohoni
8Thisdocumentassessestheinternationalautofinanceenvironment,coveringlendingandtrendsforbothretail(toconsumer)andwholesale(toautodealer)marketsSevenmajorautomarketsarecovered,eachincludingConsumerfinancetrendsAutosalesgrowthandOEMmarketsharesKeyautofinanceplayersWaysinwhichretailandwholesaleloansaremadeContentandstructureforeachcountryisslightlydifferentbasedondataavailabilityObjectivesofthedocument
ContentsGermanyUKBrazilRussiaMexicoChinaIndia
Autofinancing,whilerobust,hasremainedrelativelystagnantinrecentyearssimilartoGermanconsumercreditmarketasawholeSOURCE:PFS,Citigroup,DATReports,DeutscheBank141613.0%79.2%7.83%79.3%200906143614.0%79.1%7.01%78.4%6.5%200414080.20%p.a.77.9%6.3%Other1Mortgage14237.4%13.3%Autoloans79.0%7.7%0815.9%Germanyconsumercreditbreakdown24.5%0.5%CAGR49%48%47%44%43%45%1Includesoverdrafts,otherpersonalloans(e.g.,POS,cash),creditcardloans2DeutscheBank2008estimates2FX:1USD=0.76€Europeanconsumersasawhole,estimatedtobuy~40%ofcarsoncreditInearly2009,fundingdriedupformostpublicfundingmarkets,yetcredithassinceimprovedintermsofcostConsumercreditas%GDPUSD,bln
CaptivesprofitableandconsistentforOEMs,providingend-of-termmanagementadvantageoverleaner,moreefficientbanksAutocaptivesFSpre-taxROE,bycompany2009E15%25%20%15%10%0%EU
AverageRe-
naultPSAFiatVWDAIBMWSOURCE:CitigroupGlobalMarkets,CitiInvestmentResearchandAnalysisEuropeanexpertssuggestcaptivesmakesignificantmoneyforOEMsandallowforsecurityandflexibilityincreditcrunchsituations.Captives,whilenotasefficientorleanasbanks,tendtohaveincreasedrem
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