2024年美赛35篇特等奖O奖论文-C-2403774.pdf

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ProblemChosen2024TeamControlNumber

MCM/ICM

C2403774

SummarySheet

UncoveringtheHiddenMomentum:AData-ScienceExplorationof

TennisMatchDynamics

Tennis,asacomprehensivesport,hasalwaysbeenasubjectofgreatinterest.Besidesthe

physicaldemandsonathletes,exceptionalskillsandoutstandingtacticalstrategiesarekeytovictory.

Thisstudydelvesintotheconceptofathleticpotentialincompetitivesports,aninherentvitality

andadvantagethatbecomesapparentduringmatches,utilizingdatascienceandmachinelearning

techniques.Ultimately,thedata-driveninsightsderivedfromourmodelswillprovidevaluable

guidanceandreferenceforcoaches

Thisarticleprimarilyestablishestwomodels:theXGBoost-basedMomentumQuantification

ModelandtheTennisMatchPointTime-ConvolutionModel.

Beforebuildingthemodels,weinitiallyconducteddatapreprocessing,includingthe

identificationofoutliersandhandlingmissingvaluesusingstrategiessuchastheInterquartile

Range(IQR).Wealsoselectivelyremovedorimputeddatabasedonpracticalsignificance.

Subsequently,wedesignedvariablesbasedondifferenttimeframes(Current-Past)and

varioustemporalscales(Short-Medium-Long).Finally,weusedSpearmanscorrelation

coefficienttoeliminatevariableswithhighcorrelationstothedependentvariableandthoseexhibiting

autocorrelation.

Addressingthefirstproblem,thisstudyintroducesimprovementstotheXGBoost-based

momentumestimationof

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