2024年美赛35篇特等奖O奖论文-E-2400860.pdf

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ProblemChosen2024TeamControlNumber

MCM/ICM

E2400860

SummarySheet

VeilsofUncertainty:WeavingRiskintotheTapestryofPreservation

UndertheWeathersWatch

Summary

Asthetapestryofnatureweavesitsunpredictablepatterns,humanity’squestforstability

becomesevermorepressing.Intheshadowofuncertainty,wefindresilience,craftingshields

againstthetempestsoffate.

First,weestablishaRiskAnalysismodeltocomprehensivelyassesstheExpectedAn-

nualLoss(EAL)fromextremeweatherintermsofpopulation,building,andagriculture.The

assessmentforeachaspectiscalculatedfromthreeperspectives:naturalhazardexposure,His-

toricLossRatio,andthelikelihoodriskfactorofnaturalhazardannualizedfrequency.Com-

munityRiskFactor(CRF)iscalculatedfromsocialvulnerabilityandcommunityresilience.

EALandCRFareusedtoquantifytherisklevelsofvariousregionsandrankthemusingthe

K-meansalgorithm,resultinginarisklevelmapoftheUnitedStates.

Second,wedevelopaRisk-incorporatedCapitalAssetPricingModel(CAPM)toaid

insurancecompaniesinunderwritingdecisions.Thismodelcombinesmarketreturnrates,the

risk-freerate,andbankruptcytheorywitha10%bankruptcyprobabilitytosetinsurancerates.

Itevaluatesiftheregionsresidentscanaffordthesepremiums,providingdecision-makingad-

viceforinsurancecompanies.

Morespecifically,weapplyourRisk-incorporatedCapitalAssetPricingModelinLos

AngelesandGorontalo.InLosAngeles,insurancecompaniesseehighprofitsandlowrisks.

However,inGorontalo,therequiredpremiumfor$10,000c

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