2024年美赛35篇特等奖O奖论文-F-2422054.pdf

ProblemChosen2024TeamControlNumber

MCM/ICM

F2422054

SummarySheet

IllegalWildlifeTrade:AModel-BasedSolutionfor

Tanzania

Summary

Theillegalwildlifetrade(IWT)causessignificanteconomicandecologicaldamage

annually.TobettercomprehendthecausalfactorsofIWTandbalanceecologicalcon-

servationwitheconomicdevelopment,weconstructedDiscreteDynamicOptimization

Models,providingadvicetotheTanzaniangovernmentondecision-making.

First,weanalyzedtheTanzaniangovernment’sgoverningpower,economicresources,

andenvironmentalintereststhatenableittotakeactiontoreduceillegalwildlifetrade.Then,

wedevelopedtwodiscreteoptimizationmodelslinkedatdiscretepointsintime:amodel

ofthebehavioralchoicesofIWTandamodelofthegovernment’spolicydecisions.

Thefirstmodelanalyzesthecorrelationbetweenthedurationofillegalactivities

bywildlifetradersandtheirlegalremuneration,whichisdeterminedbytheirprofit-

maximizingobjective.Thesecondmodelanalyzeshowthegovernment’sinvestmentin

infrastructuredevelopmentaffectsIWTandothergoalsasadecisionvariableinanopti-

mizationmodel.

ByiteratingbetweenModelIandModelII,weidentifypolicyrecommendationsfor

theTanzaniangovernment.OurprogramhasthepotentialtosignificantlyreduceIWT

andincreasesalarylevelswithin5yearsandinthelongterm.

Furthermore,weconsiderdeferringpolicyeffectstoaddressclimatechangeand

othertransportationsystems.Thisapproachhelpstocomplementtheunquantifiablecom-

ponentsofpolicyeffects.

Weconductedsen