2024年美赛35篇特等奖O奖论文-C-2409961.pdf

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ProblemChosen2024TeamControlNumber

CMCM/ICM2409961

SummarySheet

MomentumPredictionandCoreFeatureExtraction

BasedonGRUwithIntegratedGradients

Summary

Currently,coaches,players,andmanagersareallawarethatmomentumplaysahugerole

intheprogressoftennismatches.Byanalyzingthechangesinmomentumduringthegame,we

canevaluatetheperformanceofplayersduringspecifictimeperiodsandmakespeculationsabout

thegameresults.Byunderstandingthefactorsthatinfluencethemomentumofthegame,wecan

assessthefluctuationsinthegameprocessandconstructaplayertrainingsystem.Therefore,itis

crucialtorecognizetheroleofmomentuminthegameanduseittohelpplayerscopewithevents

thataffecttheprogressofthegame.

Firstly,weestablishedanInstantaneousScoreRate(ISR)modeltocapturematchpoints.After

usingthecubicsplineinterpolationmethodtoprocessdiscretedata,themodelcansmoothlyestimate

theInstantaneousscorerateatanytimeandaccuratelycapturekeymomentsinthecompetition.

Basedontheresultsofthismodel,wecanquicklyidentifytheperformanceofplayersatspecific

timepoints.Inaddition,theresultsofthemodelclearlydemonstratethefirstmoveradvantageof

theservingpartyinthegame,whichisconsistentwiththefacts.Then,weestablishamodeltotest

theroleofmomentuminthecompetition.Theresultsindicatethatthereisnotindependentbetween

fluctuationsinthegameandthesuccessofplayers.Inadditiontothefirstmoveradvantage,there

willbeastrongmomentuminthegamethataffectstheInstantaneousScoreRate.

Next,inordertopredictfluctuationsinthecompetition,weus

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