2024年美赛35篇特等奖O奖论文-C-2410482.pdf

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ProblemChosen2024TeamControlNumber

MCM/ICM

C2410482

SummarySheet

SUMMARY

Playersandspectatorsoftenwonderwhat’sgoingonduringthematchduetotheincredible

swings,whicharecommonlyattributedtomomentum.Momentumisnotabouttechnique;instead,

itcoverstherealproblemsthattennisplayersface.Therefore,momentumisthehiddenforcethat

controlstheflowofthematch.

Fortask1,first,wedecomposethematchflowintotwodistinctindicators:winningprobability

andmomentum—theformerindicatingmatchsituationfavorability,thelattercontrolovergame

dynamics.Subsequently,utilizingtheMarkovModelforwinningprobabilitycalculations,we

estimatedwinchancesusingconditionalprobabilities.Crucially,werigorouslydefinedtheabstract

conceptofmomentum,incorporatingthesignificancevarianceofindividualpoints,andidentifying

closelyrelatedfactors.

Fortask2,Wetranslaterandomnessintothequestionofwhethermomentumeffectsare

significant.Utilizinghypothesistestingandlogisticregression,wefindmomentumsignificantly

correlatedwithplayerperformance,evidencedbyat-statisticformomentumyieldingap-value

wellbelow0.05anda95%confidenceintervalforthecoefficientthatexcludeszero.

Fortask3,EmployingStateSpaceModelandKalmanFilter,ourmodelnotonlyforecasts

springsinmomentumwithsuperioraccuracycomparedtotheARIMARmodelbutalsooffersen-

hancedmathematicalinterpretabilityovermachinelearningalgorithms,demonstratingexceptional

predictiveoutcomesinourfinalassessment.Basedonthis,weanalyzef

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