2024年美赛35篇特等奖O奖论文-C-2425454.pdf

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ProblemChosen2024TeamControlNumber

CMCM/ICM2425454

SummarySheet

ChangingTides:MomentumSwingsinTennis

Summary

Situationschangerapidlyintennis,andtheincredibleswingsareoftenattributedtomo-

mentum.WeanalyzemomentumthroughWimbledon2023men’smatchesdata.

ForTask1,wedevelopaLeverageQuantitativeMomentumCaptureModel.Firstly,

weconsidertheeffectofshort-termmotivationandconfidenceboostingonservepercentage,

andutilizetheMonteCarloalgorithmtocomputethewinningprobability(match/set/game)

ateachpoint.ThenwedefineLeverageashowmuchwinningorlosingaballchangesthe

winningprobabilityandthemomentumasexponentialmovingaverageofleverage.Finally,

theWimbledonfinalmatchflowisvisualizedandtheresultsareshown.

ForTask2,weuseastatisticaltesttoverifythatmomentumdoesplayroleinthematch.

Throughtheruntest,wefoundthatata90%confidencelevel,theproportionofnon-random

gamescoresinthegivendatasetaccountsfor45.11%ofthetotal,whichindicatestheswingsin

thegamearenotrandom.Furthermore,throughthecontingencytableindependencetest,we

determine,ata90%confidencelevel,thatswingsinplayandrunsofsuccessbyoneplayerare

correlatedtothemomentum.

ForTask3,weestablishtheGrid-SearchRandomForestSwingPredictorModeltofore-

castshort-termswingsinmomentum.Weselect43indicatorsasinputsforthemodeltopredict

momentumtransitionscenarios(notransitionofadvantage,theadvantagetiltingtowards

oneself,theadvantagetransitioningtotheopponent)inthenextspoints.Themodelachieveda

94%successfulclassificationrateonthetrainingset,demonstratingg

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