2024年美赛35篇特等奖O奖论文-C-2418251.pdf

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ProblemChosen2024TeamControlNumber

MCM/ICM

C2418251

SummarySheet

Momentum:PowerfulMagicforWinning

Summary

Inthe2023WimbledonFinals,CarlosAlcarazdethronedNovakDjokovicinacaptivating

displayofyouthfulexuberanceoverseasonedskill.Thematch’sdynamicebbandﬂowhighlighted

theintangiblefactorofmomentum.Tocapturethisphenomenon,ourteamcraftedmathematical

modelsthatleveragedWimbledondatatoquantifyplayermomentum,offeringfreshinsightsinto

whatdrivestennistriumphs.

ForModel1,westartedbycleaningthedatatoremoveoutliers.Wethenextractedthematch

dataforNovakDjokovicfromtheFinals.ByfeedinghisdataintoaRecurrentNeuralNetwork

(RNN),wecalculatedhiswinningprobabilityforeachgamewhenservingandreceiving.There-

sultsshowedasigniﬁcantlyhigherwinningprobabilitywhenservingthanreceiving,whichaligns

withexperience.Additionally,wecreatedvisualizationchartstointuitivelydisplaythechangesin

winningprobabilitythroughoutthematch.

ForModel2,weﬁrstdeﬁnedanalgorithmforpotentialpoints.Potentialpointisastatequan-

tityrelatedtoﬁvefeatures:servicepoints,breakpoints,continuousscoring,unforcederrors,and

distancerun.WeusedPrincipalComponentAnalysis(PCA)onﬁvefeaturestoextractthreeprin-

cipalcomponentvectorsasinputfeaturesandbuiltamomentummodelbasedonSupportVector

Machines(MSVM).Thismodelwasusedtoobtainthesingle-gamemomentumandaccumulated

setmomentumfortwoplayers.Weconductedacorrelationanalysisbetweenthecalculatedsingle-

gamemomentumandthesingle-gamewinningprobabilityobtained

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