2024年美赛35篇特等奖O奖论文-C-2401445.pdf

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ProblemChosen2024TeamControlNumber

CMCM/ICM2401445

SummarySheet

UnveilingtheDynamicsofTennis

Summary

The2023WimbledonfinalwitnessedyoungprodigyCarlosAlcarazoverturna

seasonedchampion,alsosparkingdebatesontheroleofmomentumintennis.Inthis

paper,webuildanevaluativemodeltomeasureplayers’dynamicstate,validatedthe

existenceofmomentum,andcreatedapredictivemodelformomentumswings.

First,afterdatapreprocessing,weintroducetheDynamicPlayIndex(DPI)to

measurematchflow.WequantifyDPIusingalinearcombinationofperformance(PE),

personalstrength(PS),andservingadvantage(SA).Specifically,wequantifyPEwith

probabilitiesfromGradientBoostingTreesbasedonGridSearch(GBDT),summa-

rizePSwithasix-dimensionalevaluationindex,andrepresentSAwithabinaryvari-

able.Thus,WeyieldGBDT’soptimalparameters:[learningrate:0.2,maxdepth:5,

nestimators:300],andachieveanaccuracyof82.4%.Consequently,wecalculatethe

DPIateachmatchmomentasDPI=0.28×PE+0.32×PS+0.4×SA.Employ-

ingthismethodology,weeffectivelydelineatethematchflowforthe2023Wimbledon

encounter,matchID2023-wimbledon-1701.

Then,toprovetheexistenceofmomentum,weemployaproofbycontradiction,

initiallyassumingthatmomentumdoesnotexist.WecombineGaussiandistribu-

tionswithPSandSAfromTask1.Usingthese,wesimulatescoresfor7matches,

fromquarter-finalstothefinal.Wecomparethesesimulatedscorestoactualscores

usingtheDynamicTimeWarping(DTW)algorithm.WefindthatModel1’sscore

predictions,implyingthepresenceofmomentum,alignmorecloselywithactualdata,

showingasi

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