2024年美赛35篇特等奖O奖论文-E-2410889.pdf

ProblemChosen2024TeamControlNumber

MCM/ICM

E2410889

SummarySheet

FindaHomeforYourProperty

Summary

Asthefrequencyofextremeweathereventsincreasesglobally,thethreattoprop-

ertysafetyisgrowing,leadingtohigherinsuranceclaimrisksandconsequentlyrapid

increasesininsurancerates.Thisresultsinpotentiallossesforinsurancecompanies

andunaffordableinsurancepremiumsforpropertyowners.Thispaperdevelopsan

insurancemodeltoassesswhetherinsurancecompaniesshouldconductbusinessin

theseareas.Additionally,aprotectionmodelisestablishedtoidentifypropertiesof

culturalandcommunitysignificanceandtoproviderecommendationsforprotective

measures.

ForTask1,wedevelopedanunderwritingdecisionmodelbasedonwhetherthe

insurancecompanyisprofitableasthedecisioncriterion.UsingMonteCarlosimula-

tions,wegenerated100insurancescenariostocalculatetheprobabilityofprofitability

fortheinsurancecompany,whichinformedtheunderwritingdecisions.Demonstrat-

ingthismodelinGuangdongProvince,China,andFlorida,USA,theprobabilityof

profitableunderwritinginGuangdongis63%,whileitis26%inFlorida.Therefore,the

insurancecompanyundertakesunderwritinginGuangdongbutnotinFlorida.Addi-

tionally,whenthebaserateishigh,theinsurancecompanyoptsforrisk-taking.Prop-

ertyownerscaninfluencetheinsurancecompany’sdecisionbyusingariskchecklist

toreducetheprobabilityofpropertydamage.

ForTask2,weimprovedtheunderwritingdecisionmodeltoquantifythelevel

ofrealestateprotectionindifferentlocationswithinspecificareas.Furthermore,we