2024年美赛35篇特等奖O奖论文-F-2426941.pdf

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ProblemChosen2024TeamControlNumber

FMCM/ICM2426941

SummarySheet

HopesHorizon:TurningtheTrendonIllegalWildlifeTrade

Summary

Theillegalwildlifetradeposesaseriousthreattowildlifeandecosystems.Therefore,

weproposedafive-yearproject.Thisprojectaimstoreduceillegalwildlifetradebyfocusing

onawareness,stoppingpoachinganddisruptingtraderoutes.Specifically,wecreatedthe

StopIllegalWildlifeTrade(SIWT)Modeltomeasuretheamountofillegalwildlifetrade.

Firstly,wecreatedaCustomerAssessment(CA)modeltoevaluatingpotentialclients.

AHPandEWMandTopsiswasusedinthismodel.TheWorldWideFundforNature

(WWF)hadacompositescoreof0.78,representingitasthemostsuitableclient.We

explainedthefitoftheprojectwithWWFthroughSRItheoryandrelevantreferences.The

datashowsa54%decreaseintheplanetsLifeVitalityIndex(LPI),whichindicatesa

seriousdeclineintheplanetsbiodiversity.Weprojectedthattheseoutcomeswouldoccur

uponthesuccessfulimplementationoftheproject.TheIllegalwildlifetradedeclineand

wildlifepopulationsincrease.

Secondly,wedevelopedtheSIWTmodel,whichconsistsoffoursub-models:

OtentialBuyer-Purchaser-Non-purchaser(OPN)model,StopPoachingWildlife(SWP)

model，ForecastingIllegalWildlifeTrade(FIWT)model,ForecastWildlifePopulations

(FWP)model.TheOPNmodelisbasedontheSIRSmodelandsimulateschangesinthe

numberofbuyers.SWPmodelusesthemodifiedLotka-Volterraequationtosimulatesthe

amountofwildlifepoached.TheFIWTmodelusesdifferenceequationstopredictthetotal

amountofillegallytradedwildlife

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