2024年美赛35篇特等奖O奖论文-E-2413552.pdf

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ProblemChosen2024TeamControlNumber

EMCM/ICM2413552

SummarySheet

SustainabilityStudyofthePropertyInsuranceIndustryUnderExtreme

WeatherConditions

Summary

Inthecontextofglobalclimatechange,theincreasingfrequencyofextremeweatherevents

posessignificantchallengestothepropertyinsuranceindustry.Thisstudypresentsacomprehensive

analyticalframeworkaddressingthesustainabilityofthepropertyinsurancesectorunderextreme

weatherconditions.Initially,weemployedaMulti-ScaleGeographicallyWeightedRegression

(MGWR)model,integratingclimatedata,geographicallocation,andinsuranceclaimsdata,to

analyzetheimpactofextremeweatheroninsurancepayouts.Themodelresultsindicatethat

consideringspatialheterogeneityallowsformoreaccuratepredictionsofinsuranceclaimamounts,

offeringinsurancecompaniesascientificriskassessmenttool.Forinstance,weobservedasignifi-

cantpositivecorrelationbetweeninsurancepayoutsandtheprobabilityofextremeenvironmental

eventsincertainhigh-riskareas.

Addressingthefirstissue,weproposedarisk-basedinsurancepricingstrategythatbalances

thelong-termhealthofinsurancecompanieswiththefinancialburdenonpropertyowners.By

incorporatingahumanitarianadjustmentcoefficientandaprofitabilityadjustmentfactor,ourmodel

pricesinsuranceproductsatdifferentrisklevels,achievingabalancebetweensocialresponsibility

andeconomicefficiency.Forexample,ourmodelpredictedinsuranceamountsforCalifornia(a

high-riskarea)tobe$20.1394millionin2023,withananticipatedincreaseto$31.0054million

by2034

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