2024年美赛35篇特等奖O奖论文-E-2407414.pdf

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ProblemChosen2024TeamControlNumber

MCM/ICM

E2407414

SummarySheet

NavigatingtheClimateLabyrinth:ADualApproachto

InsuranceResilienceandLandmarkDefense

Summary

Thegrowingnumberofextremeweathereventsposessignificantchallengesforin-

suranceindustry,communitiesandpropertydevelopersintermsoftheirresilienceand

sustainability,whichincludesaninsuranceprotectiongaptomend,residentialsitingde-

cisionstomakeandpreservationstrategiestotake.

Inordertobettercomprehendandtackletheproblemsbroughtbydeterioratingcli-

mateconditions,webuildtwomodels:ModelI:ClimateRiskAssessModelforInsurance

CompaniesandModelII:LandmarkPreservationModelforCommunityLeaders.

ForQuestionone,weutilizePeaksOverThreshold(POT)methodtofitthedistribu-

tionofdisasterintensitymeasuredbylossesbroughtbyextremeweatherevents.Weap-

plyhypothesistestingtofitthedistributionofdisasterfrequency,andtheresultssuggest

thattheitfollowsaPoissondistribution.Wecalculatetheprobabilityofruin(POR)for

insurancecompaniesanddeterminetheoptimalretentionandinvestmentstrategyvia

ruintheory.Finally,wecategorizeriskintofourlevelsandapplyourmodeltoMumbai

andCairns.TheconclusionindicatesthepredictionofrisklevelofMumbaiwilltransition

fromlevelIItoIIIwithpredictedPORvariesfrom3.71%to12.22%whiletherisklevelof

CairnswillshiftfromlevelItoIIwithpredictedPORvariesfrom1.33%to4.40%.

ForQuestiontwo,weenhanceourinsurancemodelbyincorporatingaSocio-Economy-

Insurance-Cost(SEIC)evaluationmetrictomakeresidentialsitingdecisions.Thisenhanc

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