世界银行-也门人道主义危机中早期发现粮食不安全的数据驱动方法（英）-2024.5.pdf

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iDetectionofFoodInsecurityinYemen’s

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PovertyandEquityGlobalPractice

May2024

PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10768

Abstract

TheRepublicofYemenisenduringtheworld’smostsevereHistoricalvalidationdemonstratesthatwarningscanbe

protractedhumanitariancrisis,compoundedbyconflict,reliablyissuedbeforesharpdeteriorationinfoodsecurity

economiccollapse,andnaturaldisasters.Currentfoodinse-occurs,usingonlyafewcriticalindicatorsthatcapture

curityassessmentsrelyonexpertevaluationofevidencewithinflation,conflict,andagriculturalproductivityshocks.

limitedtemporalfrequencyandforesight.Thispaperintro-Theseindicatorssignaldeteriorationmostaccuratelyat

ducesadata-drivenmethodologyfortheearlydetectionandfivemonthsofleadtime.Thepaperconcludesthatsimple

diagnosisoffoodsecurityemergenci