Allianz安联：2024特朗普经济学：续集-特朗普第二任总统对贸易、财政和货币政策的影响（英文版）.pdf

13March20240507182027

ApivotalelectionTradepolicy:NotaFiscalpolicy:playingIndustrialpolicy:un-Capitalmarkets:

full-fledgedtradewar?cautiouslyleashingnon-greenhigherforlonger

subsidies

AllianzResearch

Trumponomics:

thesequel

Trade,fiscalandmonetarypolicyimplications

ofasecondTrumppresidency

AllianzResearch

Executive

Summary

LudovicSubran•WhoeverwinstheWhiteHouseinNovemberwillbeconfrontedwitha

ChiefEconomist

ludovic.subran@changingUSeconomy.WhiletheUShasremainedremarkablyresilient

MaximeDarmetdespiterisinginterestratesandglobaluncertainty,ithasbecomemore

SeniorEconomistforUSFrancepronetoinflationvolatility,givenalargerexposuretofrequentsupply

maxime.darmet@

shocksandstructurallaborshortages.Againstthisbackdrop,demand-

NikhilSebastianboostingpolicies(suchastaxcuts)orsupply-hurtingpolicies(tariffhikes)

EconomistandDataScientist

nikhil.sebastian.ext@couldre-igniteinflationfasterandpushupinterestrates.Socialtensions

JordiBascoCarreraandfiscaltrade-offsalsoraiseconcernsaboutthefutureoffiscalpolicy.

LeadInvestmentStrategistOntheotherhand,theroll-outofartificialintelligence(AI)islikelyto

jordi.basco_carrera@