基于欧盟航运市场机制的船用替代燃料应用路径.pdfVIP

基于欧盟航运市场机制的船用替代燃料应用路径

摘要：为明晰欧盟航运市场机制下船舶经营成本增量以及最具经济性的船用替代燃料部署路径,从

燃料成本、欧盟碳排放交易体系（EuropeanUnionEmissionTradingSystem，EUETS）碳配额和

FuelEU罚金三个维度建立量化模型。基于此模型，评估单船在不同燃料应用路径下的经济性，并

提出船队“联合池”合规余额最优分配策略。结果表明：EUETS对促进船舶应用替代燃料的作用

绿色低碳燃料或将逐渐实现规模化应用；《欧盟海运燃料条例》下的“联合池”船队组建将成为航运

新的营运模式。双燃料船舶在法规履约和替代燃料应用方面具有良好的灵活性，可作为航运公司

未来船队发展的重点。

关键词：航运市场；欧盟碳排放交易体系（EUETS）；欧盟海运燃料条例；船用替代燃料；经济性

分析

PathwaysofalternativemarinefuelsbasedonEU

shippingmarketmechanism

Abstract:Toclarifytheincreaseinshipoperatingcostsandthemosteconomicaldeploymentpathfor

alternativemarinefuelsundertheEUshippingmarketmechanism,aquantitativemodelisestablished

fromthreedimensions:fuelcost,EuropeanUnionEmissionTradingSystem

allowances,andFuelEUpenalty.Basedonthismode,theeconomicsofasingleshipundervariousfuel

applicationpathsisevaluated,andanoptimalallocationstrategyofthecompliancebalanceofthe“joint

pooloffleetsisproposed.Theresultsshowthat:EUETShasalimitedeffectonpromotingtheuseof

alternativefuelsinships;underthecurrentEUshippingmarketmechanism,traditionalfossilfuelsmay

收稿日期：2023-11-17修回日期：2024-02-23

第1期常圣岱，等：基于欧盟航运市场机制的船用替代燃料应用路径113

remainamoreeconomicalchoicearound2035,andgreenandlow-carbonfuelsmaygraduallybeusedon

alargescalearound2045;the“jointpooloffleetunderFuelEUMaritimewillbecomeanewoperating

modeforshipping.Finally,dual-fuelshipshavegoodflexibilityintermsofregulatorycomplianceand

alternativefuelapplication,andcanbeafocusoffuturefleetdevelopmentforshippingcompanies.

Keywords:shippingmarket;EuropeanUnionemissiontradingsystem(EUETS);FuelEUMaritime;

alternativemarinefuel;economicanalysis

的可供性,船用燃料替代过程预计长达2