韧性视角下我国原油进口海运网络恢复策略优化研究.pdfVIP

韧性视角下我国原油进口海运网络恢复策略优化研究

摘要：鉴于中国对进口原油高度依赖，以及原油进口海运网络中断风险日益加剧，优化网络恢复策略并提

升其韧性已成为亟待解决的关键问题。本文以实际运输数据为基础构建我国原油进口海运网络模型，基

于韧性曲线和网络效率指标提出网络韧性评估方法，并以韧性最大化为目标建立恢复策略优化模型，应用

于模拟的5种中断情景。结果表明，优化模型生成的最优恢复策略在所有中断情景下均能显著提高网络的

恢复速度，且与传统恢复策略相比最高可减少79.14%的网络韧性损失；优化模型可识别出不同情景下对网

络有决定性影响的关键节点，优先恢复可提升网络整体的恢复效率；当绕路成本约束放宽时，网络的韧性

损失随之下降，节点的最优恢复次序也会发生改变。研究结论可为我国原油进口海运网络的应急恢复和

韧性提升提供决策依据。

关键词：水路运输；恢复策略优化；韧性评估；原油海运网络；中断风险

OptimizationofRecoveryStrategyforChinasCrudeOilImport

MaritimeNetworkfromaResiliencePerspective

Abstract:Abstract:Chinashighdependenceonimportedcrudeoil,coupledwiththeescalatingrisksofdisruptionsinthemaritime

transportationnetwork,necessitatesurgentattentiontooptimizingrecoverystrategiesandenhancingresilience.Basedonactual

transportationdata,amodelofChinascrudeoilimportmaritimenetworkhasbeendeveloped.Aresilienceassessmentmethod

usingresiliencecurvesandnetworkefficiencyindicators,hasbeenproposed.Anoptimizationmodelforrecoverystrategiesis

establishedwiththeobjectiveofmaximizingresilienceandthenappliedtofivesimulateddisruptionscenarios.Theresultsreveal

thattheoptimalrecoverystrategysignificantlyacceleratesnetworkrecoveryacrossallscenarios,reducingresiliencelossbyupto

79.14%comparedtotraditionalstrategies.Themodelidentifiescrucialnodesthatsignificantlyimpactthenetworkundervarious

scenarios,emphasizingtheimportanceofprioritizedrecoverytoenhanceoverallefficiency.Furthermore,relaxingdetourcost

constraintsdecreasesresiliencelossandalterstheoptimalnoderecoverysequence.Thefindingsprovideafoundationalbasisfor

decision-makinginemergencyrecoveryandresilienceenhancementofChinascrudeoilimportmaritimenetwork.

Keywords:Keywords:waterwaytransportation;recoverystrategyoptimization;resilienceassessme