欧洲央行-欧洲央行多国模型。用于欧元区最大国家预测和政策分析的Asemi结构模型（英）-2025.pdfVIP

WorkingPaperSeries

ElenaAngelini,NikolaBokan,MatteoCiccarelli,TheECB-MultiCountryModel.A

MagdalenaLalik,SrečkoZimic

semi-structuralmodelforforecasting

andpolicyanalysisforthelargesteuro

areacountries

No3119

Disclaimer:ThispapershouldnotbereportedasrepresentingtheviewsoftheEuropeanCentralBank

(ECB).TheviewsexpressedarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflectthoseoftheECB.

Abstract

ThispaperintroducestheEuropeanCentralBank’sMultiCountrymodel(ECB-MC),

acoherentmacroeconomicframeworkdesignedtosupporteconomicforecastingand

policyanalysiswithintheEurosystem.TheECB-MCcapturestheeconomicdynamics

ofthefivemajoreconomiesintheeuroarea–Germany,France,Italy,Spain,andthe

Netherlands–whichaccountformorethan80percentoftheeuroareatotalGDP.By

incorporatingdetailedstructuralfeaturesanddata-driveninsights,themodelprovides

themainreferencefortheECB’sstaffmacroeconomicprojections,actingasadisci-

plinedtoolforforecasting,enablingscenario,riskandsensitivityanalyses,andgiving

aframeworktounderstandthetransmissionchannelsofvariouseconomicshocks.The

paperoffersadetailedaccountofthestructure,theestimationandthemodelproper-

ties,andprovidesaprimeronthepotentialusesoftheECB-MCintheEurosystem

macroeconomicprojections.

Keywords:Semi-structuralmodel,forecasting,euroareacountries,monetarypolicy

JELClassification:C3,C5,E5,E6

ECB