英文_高盛_美洲资产管理公司估值再次见顶_我们对该群体更具选择性；KKR_TPG_CG最具上行潜力_36页_1mb.docxVIP

GoldmanSachsAmericas

GoldmanSachs

AmericasAssetManagers

19May

19May2025

PAGE10

targetsthoughnotedamorebarbelledapproachtoInstitutionalallocations–withmorecapitalcominginattheinitialcloseandtowardtheend,andlesscominginduringinterimcloses.WeseePrivateEquityasthemostchallengedinthisenvironment,withincreasingsharegainstowardfirmswithstrongerDPI’sandIRR’s(KKRandTPGamongpublicstocks).

Retail:Despitemarketvolatility,Retailflowsremainresilient.Revenuesfromsemi-liquidproductsacrosspublicAltsreached~$950mn(~$575mninmanagementfeesand~$375mninperformancefees),up37%YoY.Weestimateretailmanagementfeesrepresent9%ofthegroup’sbasemanagementfeesandaccountedfor24%ofthegroup’sy/yorganicmanagementfeegrowth.Webelievethecombinationofsignificantinvestmentsbymanagersintoretaildistribution,productdevelopmentandacceleratingplatformadoptionofprivateAltsbytheWealthplatforms(EdwardJones,Schwabamongrecentexamples)willkeepgrowthmomentumstronghere.Public/Privatepartnerships(KKR/Capital,BX/Wellington/Vanguard,APO/STT)andmovementonthe401Kchannel(recentEmpowerannouncement)willfurtheraddtogrowthhere.

Oneoftheriskstokeepinmindhereisthepotentialcannibalizationofinstitutionalreturnsbytheacceleratinggrowthintheretailchannelasexcessreturnsinprivatemarketsarenotinfinite.Assomeofthedealflowincreasinglygetstakenupbyretail,wethinktherecouldberiskstoitemslikethe“feefree”co-investdealflowthathasboostedinstitutionalreturnsinsomeofthemorematureassetclasseslikePrivateEquityandRealEstate—ultimatelydrivingacceleratingpricingrisksintheinstitutionalchannel(thoughthisisnotimmanentgivensizeofRetailisstillrelativesmall).

Monetizationoutlook:Managementteamswerecautiousonthenear-termoutlookformonetizationactivity,with2Qand3QPRElikel