2025年生成式AI与经济增长：潜在经济影响测度新径研究报告（英文版）-.docxVIP

GenerativeAI

andEconomic

Growth

Anewapproachtomeasuringitspotentialeconomicimpact

November2025

Note:AssessmentbasedonproductivityestimatesfocusedonGenAIthatcontinuetobechanged,especiallywithAIagentsbeingdeployed.

Contents

ExecutiveSummary 3

1.Background 5

1.1BeyondtheHype:TheImperativebehindtheGenAIImpactStudy 6

2.ChartingtheCourse:InsightsfromPastStudiesonGenAI’sImpact 7

3.TheGenAIEffect:OurAnalyticalFramework 9

3.1KPMGdynamiceconomywidemodel 9

3.2TheCGEDatabase 9

3.3OurScenarioDesignandImplementation 10

3.3.1BaselineorBusiness-As-UsualScenario 10

3.3.2RapidAdoptionofGenAI 11

3.3.3SlowAdoptionofGenAI 11

3.3.4RapidAdoptionofGenAIwithoutUp-Skilling 11

4.OurFindingsandInsights 12

4.1ImpactontheUSGrossDomesticProduct(GDP) 12

4.2WhatdoesGenAImeanfortheUSJobMarket? 14

4.2.1HowwilladoptionofGenAIimpactemploymentforvarious

laborcategories? 14

4.2.2HowwillGenAIadoptionImpactWages 15

4.3WhatIndustriesareimpactedthemostbyGenAI? 16

4.4HowwilladoptionofGenAIimpactlaborforceparticipation

andunemployment? 16

4.5WhataretheCostsofAdoptingGenAI? 20

4.6WhatInvestmentOpportunitiesdoesGenAIcreate? 21

4.7ImpactofGenAIontheGlobalGDP 23

4.8HowwilladoptionofGenAIImpactGlobalLaborMarkets? 24

5.KeyTakeaways 25

QualificationsoftheStudy 26

Appendix—A:LaborCategories 27

Appendix—B:TablesandFigures 29

?2025KPMGLLP,aDelawarelimitedliabilitypartnershipandamemberfirmoftheKPMGglobalorganizationofindependentmemberfirmsaffiliatedwithKPMGInternationalLimited,aprivateEnglishcompanylimitedbyguarantee.Allrightsreserved.USCS032700-1A

Note,findingsreflectproductivityestimatesthatcontinuetobeGenerativeAIandEconomicGrowth2

updatedasgenerativeAIand