2024面向未来的前沿AI监管：前沿AI模型未来算力预测报告 英文版.pdfVIP

MARCH2024

Future-ProofingFrontier

AIRegulation

ProjectingFutureComputeforFrontierAIModels

PaulScharre

AbouttheAuthorAcknowledgments

PaulScharreistheexecutivevicepresidentIoweanenormousdebtofgratitudetotheresearchers

anddirectorofStudiesattheCenterforaatEpoch,whoseanalysisthisreportreliesupon.Their

NewAmericanSecurity(CNAS).HeisthestudyofAItrendsisavaluableresourceforunderstanding

award-winningauthorofFourBattlegrounds:theAIrevolution,andIhopethisreporthelpstofurther

PowerintheAgeofArtificialIntelligence.exposepolicymakerstotheirinsights.Thisreportbuilds

Hisfirstbook,ArmyofNone:Autonomousonpriorresearchandanalysisbynumerousscholarsto

WeaponsandtheFutureofWar,wonthe2019ColbyAward,whomIamindebted,includingDarioAmodei,Markus

wasnamedoneofBillGates’stopfivebooksof2018,andAnderljung,TamayBesiroglu,TomB.Brown,RyanCarey,

wasnamedbyTheEconomistasoneofthetopfivebooksAjeyaCotra,BenCottier,EgeErdil,TimFist,Lennart

toreadtounderstandmodernwarfare.ScharreworkedHeim,DannyHernandez,AnsonHo,MariusHobbhahn,

intheOfficeoftheSecretaryofDefenseintheBushandSaifM.Khan,AndrewJ.Lohn,AlexanderMann,Micah

Obamaadministrations,whereheplayedaleadingroleMusser,JaimeSevilla,andPabloVillalobos.Iamespecially

inestablishingpoliciesonunmannedandautonomousgratefultoMarkusAnderljung,TamayBesiroglu,Ben

systemsandemergingweaponstechnologies.HeledtheCottier,LennartHeim,andJaimeSevil