航空愿景2050：迈向气候中和增长的潜力研究报告（英文）.pdfVIP

SEPTEMBER2025

AviationVision2050

Thepotentialforclimate-neutral

growth

XINYISOLAZHENG,JAYANTMUKHOPADHAYAPH.D.,JONATHANBENOIT,

SUPRAJAN.KUMAR,DANRUTHERFORDPH.D.,DENIZRHODE,DANIELSITOMPUL

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

TheauthorsthankICCTresearchersAnaBeatrizRebouçasandGabeAlvarezfortheir

thoughtfulfeedback.Wearealsogratefultotheexternalreviewers—TimJohnson

(TransportEnvironment),MarcShapiro(BreakthroughEnergy),TomOpderbeck

andSarahChou(AmericanAirlines),andJerroldCline(GEAerospaceResearch)—for

theirvaluableinputs.ThisworkwasconductedwithgeneroussupportfromClimate

ImperativeFoundation.

InternationalCouncilonCleanTransportation

1500KStreetNW,Suite650

Washington,DC20005

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©2025InternationalCouncilonCleanTransportation(ID445)

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

Aviationisagrowingcontributortoclimatechange,witheffectsextendingbeyond

carbondioxide(CO)emissionstoincludeshort-livedclimatepollutants(SLCPs)such

2

asnitrogenoxides,blackcarbon,andcontrailcirrus.In2022,theInternationalCivil

AviationOrganizationagreedtoachievenet-zeroCOemissionsby2050,butthe

2

industryisnotontracktodeliverthescaleoffuelefficiencyimprovements,sustainable

aviationfuel(SAF)uptake,andzero-emissionaircraftdevelopmentrequiredtomeet

thatgoal.RecentadvancesinthescientificunderstandingofSLCPshaveattracted

attentiontothepotentialrapidreductionsinaviation-attributablewarmingthrough

contrailmitigation.Butnodeepdecarbonizationroadmapsforaviationhavebeen

updatedtoreflectSLCPcontrols.

ThisreportupdatestheICCT’sVision2050decarbonizationroadmapfortheaviation

sectorbyquantifyinghowSLCPmitigationcancomplementgreenhousegas(GHG)

strategiestoalignaviationwiththeParisAgreemen