航空愿景2050：迈向气候中和增长的潜力研究报告（英文版）.pptxVIP

SEPTEMBER2025

AviationVision2050

Thepotentialforclimate-neutralgrowth

THENTERNATNACUNC

NCEANTRANPRTATN

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

Aviationisagrowingcontributortoclimatechange,withefectsextendingbeyond

carbondioxide(CO2)emissionstoincludeshort-livedclimatepollutants(SLCPs)suchasnitrogenoxides,blackcarbon,andcontrailcirrus.In2022,theInternationalCivil

AviationOrganizationagreedtoachievenet-zeroCO2emissionsby2050,butthe

industryisnotontracktodeliverthescaleoffuelefficiencyimprovements,sustainableaviationfuel(SAF)uptake,andzero-emissionaircraftdevelopmentrequiredtomeet

thatgoal.RecentadvancesinthescientificunderstandingofSLCPshaveattractedattentiontothepotentialrapidreductionsinaviation-attributablewarmingthroughcontrailmitigation.ButnodeepdecarbonizationroadmapsforaviationhavebeenupdatedtoreflectSLCPcontrols.

ThisreportupdatestheICCT’sVision2050decarbonizationroadmapfortheaviationsectorbyquantifyinghowSLCPmitigationcancomplementgreenhousegas(GHG)strategiestoalignaviationwiththeParisAgreement.Usingahigh-fidelity2023flightemissioninventory(JETSTREAM),anemissionprojectionmodel(PACE2.0),anda

simplifiedclimatemodel(FaIR),thereportestimatesaviation’swarmingpotential

through2050acrossfivescenariosthatspanthefullrangeofGHGandSLCP

control:HistoricalTrends,CurrentCommitments,GHGForward,SLCPForward,andFullBreakthrough.

TheParisAgreement,adoptedin2015,commitscountriestolimitglobalwarmingtowellbelow2°Candtopursueefortstolimitthetemperatureincreaseto1.5°Cabovepre-industriallevels.Thisreportcomparesaviation’swarmingcontributionstothe

remaining1.7°Cwarmingbudget,reflectingrecentfindingsthatglobalwarmingislikelytosurpassthe1.5°Cthresholdbefore2030.

AsshowninFigureES1,undert