成本与利润决定炼油企业未来走向.docxVIP

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ENERGY

CostsandMargins

DictatetheFutureforRe?ners

ARTICLEAPRIL01,20258MINREAD

Oilre?nersfaceastructuraldeclineindemandoverthenextdecade.Alternativesourcesofenergy,suchaselectricityandbiofuels,aretakingagrowingshareofthemarket.Weexpectre?ning

capacitytoshrinkbyasmuchas10%to30%overthenexttenyears,dependingontheregion,withthemostseverereductionstakingplaceinEurope.Margins,whichhavealreadyretreatedto

prepandemiclevelsfromtheirhighsin2022,willbevolatilebutundersustaineddownwardpressure.

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Thependingshakeoutwillde?newinnersandlosers,withcostandmarginsbeingthedecidingfactors.Somere?nershavealreadymovedaggressivelytoimprovetheircoststructureswith

comprehensivetransformationsthathaveproducedbigsavings.Othershavebeenslowertoaddressine?ciencies.Allre?ners,regardlessofcurrentcostposition,needtostrengthentheirpositionsandtheircapabilities.

AnUnre?nedFuture

Re?nersarealreadyunderpressure.Marginsfellthroughout2024assupplymorethanmet

increasesindemand.Asmarginstightened,downstreamearningsforintegratedoilcompanies

droppedbyabout50%in2024from2023andaresome60%lowerthantheywerein2022.Severalcompanieshaveunderperformedmarketexpectations.

Worse,theoutlookgoingforwardisuncertain,withdemandforoilandre?nedproductsexpectedtopeakorplateauby2030asalternativeenergysourcesgrowtheirshare.Wemodeledneeded

re?nerycapacityinthreescenarios:aslow,medium,andfasttransitiontoalternativesourcesofenergy.Theyallshowbigdropsinre?ningcapacityoverthenexttenyears.(SeeExhibit1.)

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Asdemanddeclines,itwillalsoshi允amongre?nedproducts,withjetfuelprovingthemost

resilientandgasolinefacingthegreatestrisk.Re?nerswillfeeltheseshi允sinthecoststructureperbarreloftransportfuel.Forexample,asdemandforgasolinefallsfaste