《建设工程风险管理》(2006- 3- 21).pptVIP

* A major step – can be expensive and can “kill-the-project”. WHY – because most projects are started in an “optimistic” mode. A real assessment of the 风险s is likely to indicate very high 风险s – until the analysis is complete!!. This is another reason to have a project to plan the project. Minimum expenditure approved until the plan (including the 风险 assessment) is done. Sensitivity Analysis is when you look at the factors involved and see if a small change will have a major impact. For example a small change in interest rates can have a major impact over a 20 year life or a small change in demand growth can delay implementation of a second phase of a power station for several years. * 风险规避就是变更项目计划，从而消除风险或产生风险的条件，如采用一种熟悉的而非创新的方法 风险转移是设法将某风险的转给第三方 * * A major step – can be expensive and can “kill-the-project”. WHY – because most projects are started in an “optimistic” mode. A real assessment of the 风险s is likely to indicate very high 风险s – until the analysis is complete!!. This is another reason to have a project to plan the project. Minimum expenditure approved until the plan (including the 风险 assessment) is done. Sensitivity Analysis is when you look at the factors involved and see if a small change will have a major impact. For example a small change in interest rates can have a major impact over a 20 year life or a small change in demand growth can delay implementation of a second phase of a power station for several years. Avoidance 消除 Acceptance 保留 Transfer 转移 Mitigation 减少 Original Risk 原始风险 Remaining Risk 滞留风险 风险应对（处置）规划- 1 风险应对（处置）规划- 1 风险规避（Avoidance） – 重新制定计划/改变 项目范围，以躲避风险 风险缓解（Mitigation） – 通过重新制定计划来减轻风险的负面影响，或减小其 发生概率 风险接受（Acceptance） – 如果风险发生，什么措施也不采取，接受之； 或者见机行事 风险转移（Deflection，Transfer/allocate） – 通过责任分配、保险、制定合同、外包等方式使其他 人对风险负责 风险应对（处置）规划- 2 保险 （Insurance) – 将不可知的风险转化成可知风险和成本 签订合同（Contracting） – 如果对方更有经验，那么你是在缓解风险（Risk Mitigation). 如果通过合同使对方接受风险，你则是风险转移。 应急储备/储备（Contingencies/Reserves） –