美国数学建模竞赛特等奖论文——2005 A O From Lake Murray to a Dam Slurry【数学建模】.pdfVIP

From Lake Murray to a Dam Slurry 217 From Lake Murray to a Dam Slurry Clay Hambrick Katie Lewis Lori Thomas Harvey Mudd College Claremont, CA Advisor: Jon Jacobsen Summary We predict the extent of flooding in the Saluda river if a large earthquake causes the Lake Murray dam to break. In particular, we predict how high the water would be when it reached Columbia and how far the flooding would spread up tributaries of the Saluda like Rawls Creek. We base our model on the Saint-Venant equations for open-channel water flow. We use a discrete version of them to predict the water level along the length of the river. Our model takes into account the width of the floodplain, the slope of the river, the size of the break in the dam, and other factors. We estimate parameters for Lake Murray, its dam, and the Saluda River and calculate the flood results. The South Carolina State Capitol is safe under even the most extreme cir- cumstances, since it sits on a hill well above the highest possible water level. However, flood waters could still reach 17 m at Columbia and even higher upstream. Buildings in Columbia close to the water would be inundated, but there should be enough warning time for residents to escape. Both our model and local evacuation plans suggest that low-lying areas for miles around would be covered with water. The text of this paper appears on pp. 229-244. The UMAPJournal26 (3) (2005) 217. @Copyright 2005 by COMAP, Inc. All rights reserved. Permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice. Abstracting with credit is permitted, but copyrights