经济博弈论Chapter09.pdfVIP

不确定性与信息 Uncertainty and Information 第09章 Chapter 09 不确定性与信息 Uncertainty and Information 关于结果的不确定性存在于许多博弈中。 Uncertainty about outcomes exists in many of the games. 有时这一不确定性是参与者的混合策略导致的，但更 多时候是博弈所固有的东西。 Sometimes this uncertainty is the result of the players’ mixed strategies, but more often it is something intrinsic to the game. Slide 2 不确定性与信息 Uncertainty and Information 在某些博弈中，每个参与者可能不确知其他人的动机 或收益；这里的不确定性是不对称的，因为这一另外 的参与者完全清楚地知道他自己的收益。 In some games, each player may be unsure about the motives or payoffs of the others; here the uncertainty is asymmetric, because the other player knows his own payoffs perfectly well. 对信息的操纵成为一个重要的策略维度。 Manipulation of the information becomes an important dimension of strategy. Slide 3 不确定与信息：内容提要 Uncertainty and Information: Outline 不对称信息：基本思想 Asymmetric Information: Basic Ideas 直接传达，或“空话” Direct Communication, or “Cheap Talk” 信号传递和筛选 Signaling and Screening 奖金 Incentive Payments 信号传递博弈中的均衡 Equilibrium in Signaling Games 关于信号传递与筛选的证据 Evidence about Signaling and Screening Slide 4 不确定性与信息：应用 Uncertainty and Information: Applications 激励合同的本质 Nature of incentive contracts 公司的组织 Organization of companies 劳动力与耐用消费品的市场 Markets for labor and for durable goods 政府对商业的管制 Government regulation of business 税收与支出政策的改变与选举的关系 Relation of tax and expenditure policy changes to elections 向委员会进行立法授权 Delegation of legislation to committees 孔雀巨大而华丽的尾巴 Peacock’s large and ornate tail 与家人、朋友、老师和同事的日常交往