MFP模型在地下水水质评价中的应用.doc

  MFP 模型在地下水水质评价中的应用# 赵帅，柴立和** （天津大学环境科学与工程学院，天津 300072） 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 摘要：水质评价是一项系统工程，须考虑评价因子与水质间存在着复杂的非线性关系，考虑 到水资源为复杂系统，本文以最大流原理为基础，导出了描述水资源的信息动力学演化方程， 建立了水质评价的信息动力学模型，该模型无需人为给定参数，客观性强，操作简便。该文 运用理论模型对地下水水质进行评价分析并建立了评价分级标准，得到各孔隙井的水质状 况，分析影响水质的关键因子，并与 BP 神经网络和层次分析法评价模型评定结果做出了比 较，验证了该模型的实效性。 关键词：水质评价；复杂系统；最大流原理；信息动力学 中图分类号：X824 Application of MFP Model in Groundwater Quality Assessment Zhao Shuai, Chai Lihe (School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, TianJin 300072) Abstract: Water quality assessment is a systematic project，the complicated nonlinear relationship between evaluation factors and water quality should be considered. The water resources are typical complex nonlinear systems. In this paper, basing on informational reality and maximum flux principle (MFP), a new dynamical equation that controls the generation and evolution of the water resources system can accordingly be got, from which the informational dynamic model of water resources system is built. Basing on this model, evaluation criteria is derived. As a model with ontological foundation, the dynamic process is objective and easy to operate, without a prior given parameters artificially. In this paper, theoretical models used to evaluate the groundwater quality, and the evaluation grading standards is established, status of groundwater quality is got, analysis the key factors of affecting water quality. The assessment results are compared with other models; it shows that the proposed method is practical and reasonable. Keywords: water quality assessment; complex systems; maximum flux principle; information dynamics 0 引言 水资源是人类生产和生活不可缺少的自然资源，也是生物赖以生存的环境资源。随着水 资源危机的加剧和水环境质量的不断恶化，水资源短缺已经演变成为当前倍受世界关注的资 源环境问题之一[1,2]。地下水水质评价是地下水资源评价的一项重要内容，分析地下水水质 状况，为地下水资源的开发利用、规划和管理提供科学依据。目前评价方法很多, 常用的有 单因子评价法和综合指数法[3]，其中综合评价法又包括模糊综合评判法、模糊数学法、模糊 物元法、人工神经网络法和灰色聚类法[4-6]等，水体本身是一个多元的复杂体系，影响水质 评价的诸多物理化学生物因素具有很多不确定性和模糊性，评价因子与水质等级间存在着复 杂的非线性关系，使得至今仍然没有统一的水质评价模型[7-9]。在评价因素权重的确定上人 为性很大，并且没有很好