我国适度外汇储备规模研究.pdfVIP

论 文 摘 要 近年来，我国外汇储备保持持续增长态势。在 2006 年，我国取代日本成为世 界最大外汇储备国之后，我国外汇储备增速进一步加快，年新增外汇储备超过 4000 亿美元。截至 2009 年底，我国外汇储备已达到 23991.52 亿美元。 我国高额外汇储备引发诸多关注。一方面，高额外汇储备可以满足我国对外经 济活动中的各项使用需求，提升我国经济实力和国际经济地位；但另一方面，高额 外汇储备具有较高持有成本。其高速增长将引发通胀、人民币升值等压力，并会降 低我国货币政策的有效性，使得宏观金融调控的成本和代价上升。因此，确定外汇 储备的适度规模，加强对外汇储备的有效管理及运作，是我国国民经济健康、稳定、 持续发展的重要保证。 本文主要研究我国外汇储备规模适度性及其管理运作等相关问题。在研究思路 上，本文分为 5 个部分：首先笔者对国内外研究文献进行梳理；然后对我国外汇储 备基本情况予以介绍；之后，运用比例分析法和修正的 Agarwal 模型对我国外汇储 备规模适度性问题进行实证研究，得出我国外汇储备规模“偏高”的判定；接着， 对我国高额外汇储备的成因及弊端进行分析；最后，对我国外汇储备的管理运作提 出自己的建议。 关键词：外汇储备，适度规模，实证研究 ABSTRACT Recently, the foreign exchange reserve of China increases rapidly. In 2006, China has exceeded Japan as the first country of the largest amount of foreign exchange reserve over the world. After that, China’s foreign exchange reserve keeps speed of increasing over 400 billion US dollar every year. At the end of 2009, the scale of foreign exchange reserve is up to 2399 billion US dollar. The large scale of foreign exchange reserve triggers many concern. On the one hand, the large scale of foreign exchange reserve can meet the needs of China’s foreign economic activities, and promote Chinas economic strength and international economic status; On the other hand, the cost of large scale of foreign exchange reserve is high. Its rapid increasing will lead to the pressure of inflation and RMB appreciation and will reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy, make macro-financial control rise cost and price. Therefore, to determine the appropriate scale of foreign exchange reserve and strengthen its effective management and operation is an important guarantee for China’s national economic health, stable, and sustainable development. This paper mainly focuses on the appropriate