中国农村居民消费问题研究.pdfVIP

论 文 摘 要 全球金融危机以来，我国的净出口受到了很大冲击，政府也将关 注的重心由外需转向了内需，推出了一系列刺激内需的政策，希望通 过扩大内需来拉动国民经济持续稳定增长。但作为我国最大消费群体 的农村居民的消费水平却长期处于较低水准，这极大阻碍了我国经济 的发展，正是在此背景下，合理引导农村居民消费、扩大农村消费市 场成为了人们关注的焦点问题。 本文在借鉴国外消费理论的基础上，结合我国农村实际情况，从 收入性因素、非收入性因素、制度性因素等几方面分析了我国农村居 民消费不足的原因。并且选取 1990－2008 年中国农村居民的收入和 消费数据，运用理论分析结合计量分析的方法，对影响我国农村居民 消费需求的各种因素做了解释和回归分析。 此外，本文实证研究的重点放在了对收入性因素的分析上，将农 村居民收入划分为持久收入、暂时收入；工资性收入、家庭经营性收 入以及财产性和转移性收入，并将这些收入依次和农村居民消费支出 进行回归分析，检验这些收入各自对于农村居民消费的影响程度。 最后基于理论框架和因素分析的结果，从多方面提出扩大我国农 村居民消费的政策建议。 关键词：农村消费 持久性收入 工资性收入 家庭经营性收入 城镇化 农村金融改革 ABSTRACT Nowadays Chinese GDP increases but from the relation of consumption, investment and export, their contribution to our GDP is unbalance, in which consumption of countryside is lack. In this article, the writer analyze the reason of rural residents lack of consumption from income factor, non-income factor, institution factor, using consumption and income data from 1990 to 2008. The writer use theory analytical method and calculation analytical method to explain and analyze the factors that influence the consumption of rural residents. Secondly, in this article the writer combines the analysis for the factors affect consumption in both domestic and abroad and make some change. The writer select permanent income, temporary income, wages income, net Income from Household Operations, property income and transfer income to analyze the impact on consumption expenditure of rural residents correctly. Finally, the writer gives some rational financial proposals by feasibly analysis from the factors such as income factor, non-income factor and institution factor. Key Words: Rural residents’ consumption, Permanent income,