美国消费金融对经济的影响及对中国的启示孙文凯1廖理2（1中国.pdfVIP

美国消费金融对经济的影响及对中国的启示* 孙文凯 1 廖理 2 （1 中国人民大学经济学院 100872 ； 2 清华大学经济管理学院 100084 ） 摘要：消费金融产业对于减少流动性约束影响至关重要，并且其在我国正逐步得到重视。本 文首先回顾消费与经济增长关系的相关理论，指出在不同的前提假设下二者关系明显不同。 同时，通过理论推导，我们也证明即使引入政府因素，在新古典增长理论框架下消费金融发 展仍然可能降低长期增长率。同样，这个模型结论也依赖前提假设。因此，我们采用美国数 据，对信用消费对经济增长的影响做了验证。本文发现：美国信贷消费的增长并没有显著拉 高物价和金融市场利率，这意味着潜在产能过剩，并且消费增加没有挤出投资资本。比照美 国的经验和我国当前实际，我们认为，当前正是发展消费信贷的时机。要促进消费金融产业 的发展，进一步构建竞争性金融体系、完善信用制度无疑是最重要的措施。 关键词：消费金融; 经济增长; 挤出效应 The Impacts of Consumer Finance on American’s Economic Growth and Implication for China Sun Wenkai 1， Liao Li 2 (1 Renmin University of China, 100872; 2Tsinghua University, 100084) Abstract: Consumer finance industry is playing vital role in alleviating liquidity constraint. It is emerging and attracting more and more attention in China. This paper review corresponding theories about consumption and economic growth and finds that their correlation differs with varying preconditions. We also build a theoretical model to test their correlation after introducing government. Using the neo-classical framework, consumer finance may reduce the long-run growth rate. This conclusion is also relying on the precondition. So we examine the correlation of consumer finance and economic growth using American’s macro data. We find that consumer credit doesn’t cause the high interest rate. This means that surplus of potential productivity is existing in most periods so the increasing consumption don’t squeeze out investment capital. Comparing current situation in China to American’s experience, we think that it is high time for developing consumer finance in China. Constructing competing financial system, perfecting credit system, is undoubtedly most imp