收入分配、消费者行为与汇率变动趋势关系研究.doc

摘要 國內外產品的購買過程引起國內外貨幣需求的相應流動，匯率是兩國貨幣互換的比率，匯率變動隨貨幣需求的改變而變動。消費者所作出的購買選擇是構成國內外產品需求組合的基本因素，總體消費選擇的改變產生新的國內外產品需求組合，兩國貨幣流量相對有所改變，因而，引起匯率變動。 本論文研究總體消費選擇改變幅度的量度方法，從而建立起總體消費選擇變動與匯率變動趨勢的關係。本文以不同的收入群體為量度對象，各收入群體的居民對國內外產品需求偏好是在日積月累的生活過程中有序地形成，不容易因其他因素變化而有所改變。在經濟運作過程中的總收入以不均的模式分配至不同群體，各群體的消費選擇受其收入增減而變動。不同時期的國內外產品需求組合取決於各群體消費選擇的總和，其間差異帶動匯率的變動。 本論文應用研究結論對東南亞金融危機爆發的原因提出新見解，認為該危機的主要成因來源於經濟增長與收入分配兩極化的現象，貨幣落入偏好國外產品的高收入群體中。國外產品長期需求的增長大於本國產品的出口增長，因此，本國貨幣產生貶值的壓力。這些國家實行固定匯率制度，匯率在長期高估的情況下金融危機必然無可避免。 經濟增長與收入分配兩極化並存是香港經濟發展的長期特色，與論文研究對象相符。論文以收入分配的角度論述香港聯繫匯率制度的穩健性，並提出應關注的重點。有關當局不應忽視香港經濟發展過程中收入分配的情況，以免重蹈東南亞金融危機的覆轍。 關鍵詞：匯率變動 收入分配 東南亞金融危機 聯繫匯率 Abstract The consumption of both domestic and foreign products causes an adjustment in demands of local and foreign currencies and thus leads to the change of exchange rate as exchange rate means the ratio to exchange currencies between two countries. Purchasing choice made by consumers is the basic factor of the demand combination of domestic and foreign products. A change in total purchasing choices forms a new demand combination of domestic and foreign products and then a change in the flow of the relative currencies. This will cause an adjustment at the exchange rate. This dissertation investigates a method to measure the range of changes of total purchasing choices and hence establishes the relationship between the change of total purchasing choices and the changing trend of the exchange rate. Our measuring subjects are groups of citizens with different income levels. The demand preference of each group towards domestic and foreign products is formed little by little orderly throughout their lives and will not be changed so easily even though other factors have changed. Total income during an economic process is distributed unevenly into these groups and their purchasing choices will change due to an increase or decrease in their income. The demand combination of domestic and foreign products at different periods depends on the total purchas