我国国际收支结构与外汇储备增长研究.pdfVIP

摘要 自1994年以来，我国持续保持经常项目和金融项目双顺差的国际收支结构，外汇储备 也逐年增长。本文利用贸易品和非贸易品两部门模型，立足于投资环节、纳入静态价格和 动态价格研究贸易差额的决定问题，得出高储蓄率、贸易品部门相对于非贸易品部门较快 的技术进步率和外国直接投资是导致我国贸易差额持续顺差的主要原因。比较1985-1993 年(贸易平衡时期)和1994-2005年(贸易顺差时期)两个时期，外国直接投资和贸易品部门相 对较快的技术进步率以及名义汇率的非及时调整是贸易持续顺差的主要原因。我国所具有 的各种区域优势是吸引外国直接投资的主要原因。近几年受人民币升值预期的影响，非官 方资本大规模流入。国际收支保持双顺差，相对应地，既定汇率水平下外汇市场保持超额 供给，因而形成了外汇储备的大幅增加。从长期来看，商品贸易账户、服务贸易账户、投 资收益账户、外国直接投资账户等四种账户之间不能相互弥补，因而我国目前的国际收支 双顺差结构不具有可维持性，外汇储备大幅增长也不具有可维持性。调整对外商直接投资 政策、开展对外直接投资并适时允许人民币升值，这将改善我国国际收支双顺差结构，外 汇储备问题也将迎刃而解。 关键词：国际收支结构 外汇储备 外国直接投资 对外直接投资 人民币汇率 I Abstract From 1994 to now, China’s structure of Balance of Payment has been featured by current account and financial account surplus, and foreign exchange reserve has been increasing for many years. In this paper, a theoretical model is built. In this model, relative price, saving rate, technology progress rate in tradable department comparing with non-tradable department, and foreign direct investment are all included to explain trade balance. Comparing 1985-1993 period with 1994-2005 period, we found that high level of FDI inflow after 1993, rapid technology progress rate of tradable department comparing to non-tradable department and a non-timely adjustment of exchange rate are main reasons driving China’s persistent trade surplus after 1994. Regional advantages are main reasons in attracting FDI into China. In recent several years, the expectation of exchange rate appreciation is main reasons of driving illegal capital flight. Foreign exchange reserve, as an absorber of excessive supply or demand in foreign exchange market, will continue to increase with current account and financial account surplus.In the